Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 0.047923 0.054436 0.061710 0.070473 0.080793 0.092618 0.107278
2025-12-21 0.035681 0.043105 0.052048 0.063726 0.078740 0.097621 0.123529
2025-12-28 0.029548 0.037690 0.048185 0.062946 0.083567 0.111965 0.155138
2026-01-04 0.025358 0.033998 0.045856 0.063753 0.090870 0.131788 0.201033
2026-01-11 0.021732 0.030463 0.043148 0.063586 0.097039 0.152250 0.256435
2026-01-18 0.018797 0.027440 0.040670 0.063341 0.103317 0.175431 0.327691
2026-01-25 0.016070 0.024298 0.037485 0.061358 0.106422 0.194814 0.403080
2026-02-01 0.013658 0.021288 0.034013 0.058204 0.106773 0.209747 0.479440
2026-02-08 0.012151 0.019539 0.032382 0.058084 0.113232 0.240653 0.617449
2026-02-15 0.010913 0.018068 0.030998 0.058181 0.120420 0.277216 0.803794
2026-02-22 0.009952 0.016946 0.030075 0.059053 0.129900 0.325165 1.078116
2026-03-01 0.009104 0.015909 0.029144 0.059735 0.139423 0.379606 1.449304
2026-03-08 0.008154 0.014572 0.027445 0.058437 0.143922 0.423828 1.857558
2026-03-15 0.007078 0.012853 0.024691 0.054047 0.138488 0.432732 2.114243
2026-03-22 0.006511 0.012081 0.023849 0.054241 0.146972 0.500380 2.881568
2026-03-29 0.006094 0.011564 0.023485 0.055628 0.160122 0.599978 4.197016
2026-04-05 0.005662 0.010959 0.022826 0.056084 0.170680 0.700588 5.966806
2026-04-12 0.005269 0.010387 0.022156 0.056372 0.181100 0.814516 8.559368
2026-04-19 0.004835 0.009673 0.021031 0.055053 0.184971 0.899342 11.432120
2026-04-26 0.004395 0.008895 0.019639 0.052601 0.183332 0.951463 14.308766
2026-05-03 0.004124 0.008476 0.019099 0.052758 0.193327 1.099511 21.247784
2026-05-10 0.003886 0.008106 0.018634 0.053064 0.204483 1.278569 32.700378
2026-05-17 0.003695 0.007829 0.018373 0.054029 0.219751 1.526164 54.774093